SAN ANTONIO TX (9/17/01) After the horrific terrorists attacks both in New York City and Washington D.C., America must begin the task of returning to normalcy. As President Bush indicated this weekend, we must show terrorists that they were unsuccessful in bringing America to its knees.

Those of us in the transportation industry now begin the task of returning to work. Many of our clients have indicated a concern about going forward with their trucking operations. I call that "Sticking Your Head in the Sand". Let's consider for a moment of our nation's surface transportation infrastructure. We have air, pipeline, rail and trucking. While looking at those modes of transportation, let us also consider their respective security constraints.

Air cargo, along with its passenger travel, will become much more difficult in light of the new time it takes to process, load and unload at air facilities. The newspapers this weekend indicated one airline, Midway Airlines, has already closed its doors. Continental Airlines began laying off 13,.000 of its employees. United Airlines and American Airlines followed suit by decreasing available flights by 20 percent. The new security requirements for air cargo is being greatly increased. Also no air freight, at least for the short-term, will fly on a passenger aircraft. The U.S. Postal Service has also indicated no mail will fly on passenger flights. Balance this with the fact that only 0.4% of freight, by weight, moved by air in 1999. Not very much freight is it?

Pipeline, by its sheer number of miles of unprotected pipe is vulnerable for attack. Some of this might begin moving by truck. Some it however may move to water. Plus pipeline transportation is much more specialized.

The largest mode that moves surface freight is rail. From statistics in 1999, rail moved 40 % of the traffic by weight. Senior rail officials this week have express concern about vulnerabilities of tunnels, bridges and concentration of their communication and dispatching facility. They do not have the ability to provide security to all this real estate. Plus you look at rail and its funnel effect. Traffic is concentrated and much tonnage moves on unsecured tracks. Shippers may well revisit the truck mode and perhaps increase the tonnage on it...especially high value commodities current moving by rail. Does this mean that Trailer On Flat Car (TOFC) may move back to all truck. Perhaps, at least some.

That leaves trucking. Trucks moved, by weight in 1999, about 30% of the traffic. The potential exist that some freight will switch from rail back to truck. Especially expedited service to replaced that from the air sectors. Because Aermica’s trucking is decentralized, an attack on one will have little significant effect on the rest. That’s is why America’s thousands of carriers will support the continued growth of the US economy.

This morning, on LoadSource (tm), a computerized trucking loading service, there were already 8,000 listed as available. That flies in the face of a normal day, where 10,000 loads average (filtering out seasonal adjustments) for the entire day are posted.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Section of Licensing, this morning, indicated that there are no plans to suspend the need for operating authority. Nor is there any plans to reinstate emergency or temporary authority. The only exception granted is for those carriers that are directly supporting the disaster in New York City and that is a very narrow definition. Under the current environment, you are looking to 30-45 days to get your operating authority. That waiting time is pretty consistent.

Is now the time to start up a trucking operating? Well, the supply of available loads is there. What about equipment purchases? We have been told that with interest rates so low and the glut of used equipment, you may never see conditions better . With solid business knowledge, the odds for success may have increased in this time of tragedy.